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Who we are

Publications
and Working Papers:
Kent Matthews

Books
  1. The Interwar Economy: An equilibrium Analysis, Gower Press, 1986, pp. 243
  2. US and UK Unemployment Between the Wars: A Doleful Story, Hobart Paperback No 31, London: Institute of Economic Affairs, 1992, (with Dan Benjamin) pp. 174
  3. Macroeconomics and the Market, Hampshire: Macmillan, 1994, pp. 169
  4. The UK Economy Today, Manchester: Manchester University Press, (with K Holden and J Thompson), pp. 168
  5. Economics, Harlow England: Addison Wesley Longman (with M Parkin and M Powell) pp. 1006
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Articles (refereed)

  1. "St. Louis Models of the UK Economy" National Institute Economic Review, No 84, May 1978, pp. 65-69, (with PA Ormerod)
  2. "A Monetary Model of Nominal Income Determination for the UK", Empirical Economics, Vol. 3, 1978, pp. 209-226
  3. "Private Sector Expenditure and Financial Asset Accumulation, in the UK", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 12, No. 4, 1980, pp. 644-653, (with P Minford)
  4. "A Rational Expectations Model of the UK under Floating Exchange Rates", European Economic Review, 14, 1980, pp. 189-219, (with P Minford and M Brech)
  5. "Terminal Conditions as a Means of Ensuring Unique Solutions for Rational Expectations Models with Forward Expectations", Economic Letters, Vol. 4, 1980, pp. 117-120, (with P Minford and S Marwaha)
  6. "Rational Expectations and the St. Louis Model for the UK", Empirical Economics, Vol. 6, issue 2, 1981, pp. 87-102, (with C. Ioannidis)
  7. "Demand for Currency and the Underground Economy", Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 9, No 2, Dec. 1982, pp. 3-22
  8. "The Liverpool Macroeconomic Model of the United Kingdom", Economic Modelling, Vol. 1, No 1, Jan 1984, pp. 24-62, (with P Minford, S Marwaha and A Sprague)
  9. "The GDP Residual Error and the Black Economy", Applied Economics, Vol. 16, No 3, June 1984, pp. 443-48
  10. "Private Sector Expenditure in the Interwar Period: An Integrated Portfolio Approach", Manchester School, Vol. LIII, No 1, March 1985, pp. 23-44
  11. "Forecasting with a Rational Expectations Model", Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 47, No 4, Nov., 1985, pp. 311-336
  12. "Was Sterling Over-valued in 1925?", Economic History Review, Vol. XXXIX, No 4, Nov. 1986, pp. 572-587
  13. "Unemployment in Interwar Britain: An Equilibrium Analysis", Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol. 39, No 2, 1987, pp. 151-170
  14. "Mrs Thatcher's Economic Policies 1979-87", Economic Policy, No 5, Oct. 1987, pp. 57-101, (with P Minford)
  15. "Was Sterling Over-valued in 1925? A Reply and Further Evidence" Economic History Review 1989 pp. 90-96.
  16. "Could Lloyd George Have Done It ?" Oxford Economic Papers, April 1989, pp. 374-407
  17. "The UK Economic Renaissance" Economics, August 1989, pp. 103-110
  18. "The UK Economic Renaissance: Reply to Godley", Economics, December, 1989, pp. 163-164
  19. "The Portfolio Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention in a Rational Expectations Model of the UK Financial Sector", Greek Economic Review, Vol. 12, No 1, June 1990, pp. 75-103, (with J Thompson)
  20. "Wages, Unemployment and Benefits in Inter-War Britain: An Exercise in Robust Estimation" Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol. 45, No 2, April 1993, pp 119-132 (with S Blackman)
  21. "An Algorithm for the Solution of Non-Linear Forward Rational Expectations Models with Current Partial Information", Economic Modelling Vol. 11, No 3, July 1994, pp 351-358 (with P Minford and S Blackman)
  22. "The Quarterly Liverpool Model with Current Partial Information: An Exercise in Forecasting", Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 13, 1994, pp 507-518, (with P Minford and S Blackman)
  23. "Business Cycle Analysis and Forecasting with a Structural Vector Autoregression Model for Wales", Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, No 3, 1995, pp 251-266 (with C Ioannidis, J Laws, & B Morgan)
  24. "The Which Money? Debate", The Review of Policy Issues, Vol. 1, No 5, Autumn, 1995, pp 3-12
  25. "British Inflation and Unemployment in the 1970s: A Model-based Decomposition", Applied Economics, Vol. 28, 1996, pp 103-115, (with P Minford)
  26. "Demand for Narrow and Broad Money in Uganda", African Review of Money, Finance, and Banking, Supplement. Savings and Development, Vol. 1-2, 1996, pp 69-84 (with M Atingi-Ego)
  27. "Inflation: Too Much Money or Too Much Credit?" Manchester School, Vol. LXV, No 4, Sept. 1997 pp 411-426 (with C Ioannidis)
  28. "Monetary Targeting in the Era of Financial Liberalisation: The Case of Uganda", forthcoming Applied Financial Economics (with M Atingi-Ego)
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Review Articles (refereed)

  1. Introductory Macroeconomic Modelling, Arestis and Hadjimatheou and Macroeconomic Systems, Challen and Hagger, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 4, Apr/June 1985, pp. 245-247 and International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, No 3, 1985, pp. 317-320
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Chapters in Books

  1. "The Financial Model of the United Kingdom" in Exchange Rates, Money and Output: The European Experience, P De Grauwe, M Fratiani and M Nabli, Macmillan, 1985, pp. 112-122, (with J Thompson)
  2. "The Parallel Economy: A Methodological Survey", in Issues in Political Economy: Special Issue No 1, (Ed) I S Vavouras, Athens, 1990, pp. 33-77 (in the Greek)
  3. "Modelling the Monetary Sector" in Surveys in Monetary Economics Vol. I, Monetary Theory and Policy (Ed) C Green & D Llewellyn, Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1991, pp. 324-378
  4. "Macroeconomic Policy" Ch 8 in What's New in Economics?, (Ed) John Maloney, Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1992, pp. 238-284
  5. "Illegal Demand for Currency" entry in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, (Ed) P Newman, M Milgate & J Eatwell, London: Macmillan, 1992, pp 329-330
  6. "Britain's Economic Renaissance" in Britain's Economic Miracle: Myth or Reality? (Ed) N Healey, London: Routledge, 1993, pp 72-90
  7. "Inflation and Credit Market Shocks: A Signal Extraction Problem" in Operations Research '93 - GMOOR (Eds.) A Bachem, U Derigs, M Junger, R Schrader, Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag, 1994, pp 339-342 (with C Ioannidis)
  8. "Monetarism", in International Encyclopaedia of Business and Management, Volume Four, 1996, Thomson Business Press, pp. 3523-3535Research Monographs:
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Research Papers

  1. "Estimation of a Rational Expectations Model for the UK Interwar Period (Part 1)", International Economics Research Paper, No 31, Centrum Voor Economische Studien, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, 1981, pp. 43
  2. "Unemployment in Interwar Britain: An Equilibrium Approach", International Economic Research Paper No 35, Centrum Voor Economische Studien, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, 1982, pp. 44
  3. "A Model of the UK Financial Sector: The Non Bank Private Sector" International Economic Research Paper No 36, Centrum Voor Economische Studien, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Aug. 1982, pp. 43, (with J L Thompson)Other Articles:
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Other Publications

  1. "GDP Expenditure versus GDP Income: Insight into the Black Economy", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 3, No 2, Nov. 1982, pp. 15-18
  2. "National Income and the Black Economy", Journal of Economic Affairs, Vol. 3, No 4, July 1983, pp. 261-267
  3. "Unemployment Between the Wars: Lessons for Today", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 5, No 2, May 1984, pp. 25-29
  4. "High Wages Cause Unemployment", Economic Affairs, Apr-June 1985, pp. 6-11
  5. "Little M0 and the Moonlighters", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 6, No 2, June 1985, pp. 21-24, (with A Rastogi)
  6. "Policy Alternatives before and after the Next Election", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 6, No 4, Dec. 1985, pp. 25-29
  7. "Do High Wages Cause Unemployment?: Reply", Economic Affairs, Apr-May 1986, pp. 44-45
  8. "The Forecast Performance of the Liverpool Group", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 7, No 1, Mar 1986, pp. 25-31, (with P Minford and J Riley)
  9. "The Thatcher Experiment: 1980 Revisited", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 7, No 3, Sept. 1986, pp. 25-28
  10. "The Black Economy: The Evidence from Merseyside", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 8, No 2, June 1987, pp. 26-36, (with P Stoney)
  11. "Why the Credit Boom is no Bad Thing", Economic Affairs, June-Jul. 1988, pp. 8-14
  12. "Overheating and the Credit Boom: A Tenuous Link?", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 9, No 2, June 1988, pp. 30-36
  13. "Black Monday and the Crash of Voodoo Economics", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 9, No 4, Dec. 1988, pp. 26-30, (with P De Grauwe)
  14. "UK Skills Shortage: Short Term Problem or Long Term Crisis ?", Quarterly Economic Bulletin Vol. 10, No 1, March 1989, pp. 28-32
  15. "The Thatcher Economic Revolution: Myth or Reality ?", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 10, No 2, June 1989, pp. 25-35
  16. "Forecasting with the Liverpool Model: The Challenge and the Record", Quarterly Economic Bulletin Vol. 10, No 4, Dec., 1989 pp. 25-36, (with J Riley)
  17. "Explaining Mrs Thatcher's Success", Economic Affairs, Vol. 10, January 1990, pp. 10-16, (with P Stoney)
  18. "Ten Years of the Liverpool Model: A Personal Reflection", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 11, No 1, March, pp. 30-34
  19. "Inflation in the 80s: A Tale of two Moneys", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 12, No 4, December 1991, pp. 23-28 (with C Ioannidis)
  20. "Unemployment: A Lesson from All Our Yesterdays", Economic Affairs, February, Vol. 13, No 2, 1993 pp 11-14
  21. "Unemployment in the 90s and Lessons of the 30s", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 14, No 1, March, 1993 pp 25-28
  22. "Recession and Recovery in the 90s", Quarterly and Economic Manpower Survey, Liverpool Chamber of Commerce, Jan-Mar 1994, pp 2-5
  23. "The Stagflation of the Seventies: A Quantitative Analysis", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 15, No 1, March, 1994 pp 26-32 (with P Minford)
  24. "Business Cycle Analysis with a VAR Model for Wales", Welsh Economic Review, Vol. 8, No 1, Spring, 1994 pp 44-52 (with C Ioannidis, J Laws & B Morgan)
  25. "Does Overfunding Really Reduce Inflation?", Quarterly Economic Bulletin, Vol. 16, No 3, October, 1995 pp 30-36 (with J Thompson)
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Newspaper Articles

  1. "Why it Should Never Pay to be Unemployed, Daily Express, 3 December, 1993
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Official Reports

  1. "The Regional Economic Effects of the Second Severn Bridge" (with C Ioannidis) Appendix III of Second Severn Crossing: Economic Impact Study, Final Report by PIEDA plc to the Department of Employment, Ref.: 6860, June 1992
  2. "An Investigation into the Contract Guarantee Market for the Construction Industry", FABER Group Report for the Confederation of Construction Specialists, University of Wales Cardiff, Cardiff Business School, 1993 (with C Ioannidis, & M Silver)
  3. "Determination of Fresh Cod and Haddock Margins in the UK 1988-1992", Cardiff Economic Research Associates, for Sea Fish Industry Authority, May 1994, (with C Ioannidis)
  4. "An Investigation into VAT Recovery in the Restaurant and Take-Out Sectors of the Economy", Liverpool Macroeconomic Research Group, for HM Customs & Excise, April 1995, (with P Stoney, and J Lloyd-Williams)
  5. "Report on Excise Duty Compliance in the Betting and Gaming, Alcohol, and Tobacco Industries, Cardiff Economic Research Associates and Liverpool Business School, for HM Customs & Excise, April 1996 (with J Lloyd-Williams)
  6. "VAT Compliance in the Clothing and Footwear, Furniture and Floor Coverings, Hair Dressing, and Football Club Sectors of the Economy", Cardiff Economic Research Associates and Liverpool Business School, April 1996 (with J Lloyd-Williams)
  7. "An Investigation into VAT Recovery in the Restaurant and Take-Out Sectors of the Economy: An Update", Cardiff Economic Research Associates, for HM Customs & Excise, July 1996, (with J Lloyd-Williams)
  8. "A Scoping Study into VAT Compliance in the Construction Sector", Cardiff Economic Research Associates, for HM Customs & Excise, April 1996, (with J Laws)
  9. "A Scoping Study into VAT Avoidance in the Financial Sector", Cardiff Economic Research Associates, for HM Customs & Excise, October 1996, (with J Lloyd-Williams)Unpublished Working & Discussion Papers:
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Unpublished Discussion Papers

  1. "Further Aspects of the Monetary Debate" Birkbeck College, Dept of Economics, Discussion Paper, No 57, 1978
  2. "A Note on Terminal Conditions and the Analytical Solution of R.E. Models" SSRC-LITP, Liverpool International Transmission Project, Working Paper, No 7805, 1978, with P Minford
  3. "Numerical Properties of the LITP Model 2", SSRC-LITP, Working Paper, No 7903, 1979, with S Marwaha
  4. "Omitted Variables and the St. Louis Model for the UK", Liverpool University Discussion Papers in Economics, No 38, 1979
  5. "Zen and the Art of Economic Forecasting", Liverpool University, Mimeo, April 1979
  6. "Okuns Law, The Natural Rate of Unemployment and the Benefit Earnings Ratio: A Statistical Exercise", Liverpool University, Mimeo, June 1980
  7. "Divergent Expectations and the Influence of Money on Real Income and Inflation: Some Empirical Results for the USA", Mimeo, July 1980, with D Peel
  8. "RATEXP Mark 2 - A Programme to Solve Models with Rational Expectations", SSRC-LITP Working Paper, No 8102, 1981, with S Marwaha and R Pierse
  9. "Rational Expectations in the Medium Term Model" Bank of England, Mimeo, 1989 July with W Easton
  10. "Rational Expectations and Learning: Some Numerical Exercises", Liverpool University, Mimeo, August 1986, with S Marwaha
  11. "Aggregate Supply in Interwar Britain: A Comment" ESRC-LITP Working Paper, No 8801, Jan 1987
  12. "A Quarterly Version of the Liverpool Model of the UK", Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, Working Paper, No 90/06, 1990, with P Minford & A Rastogi
  13. "A Note on Bank Deregulation, Heteroscedasticity and the Demand for Money", Cardiff Business School, FABER Group Discussion Paper, Cardiff Business School, 1992
  14. "Recession and Recovery in the Interwar period: A Decomposition of Unemployment", Centre for International Banking, Economics & Finance, Discussion Paper Series, 2/94, 1994
  15. "Disequilibrium Money and the Inflation Output Trade-Off", Lombard Street Research Paper, August 1995
  16. "Disequilibrium Money, the Company Sector, and Domestic Demand", Lombard Street Research Paper, September 1995 (with T Congdon)
  17. "Much Ado About Money", Centre for International Banking, Economics & Finance, Discussion Paper Series, 2/95, 1995
  18. "VAT Evasion in Selected Sectors of the Economy: A Preliminary Analysis", Cardiff Business School mimeo, June 1996 (with Jean Lloyd-Williams)
  19. "A Kaldorian Analysis: An Application of a Kaldorian Model to the Japanese Economy 1971-93" Wincott Discussion Paper, University of Buckingham, 03/97 (with M Iyoda)
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Conference Papers

  1. "A Rational Expectations Model of the UK Interwar Economy" SSRC Money Study Group Annual Conference, Oxford, Sept. 1981
  2. "Forecasting with a Rational Expectations Model of the UK" 4th International Symposium on Forecasting, London Business School, July 1984
  3. "Rational Expectations in the Bank of England Medium Term Model" (with W Eaton), 4th International Symposium on Forecasting, London Business School, July 1984
  4. "Could Lloyd George have done it? The Pledge Re-examined" ESRC Quantitative Economic History Group Conference, University College Cardiff, Sept. 1985
  5. "The Efficacy of Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Rational Expectations Model of the UK Financial Sector" (with J L Thompson) XXI Conference de l'Association d'Econometrie Appliquee, Geneva, Jan 1987
  6. "Mrs Thatcher's Economic Policies 1980-87 (with P Minford), Centre for Economic Policy Research, Paris, April 1987
  7. "An Examination of Rational Expectations Forecasts of the UK" International Conference on Operational Research, Management Science and New Technologies, Paris, July 1988
  8. "The Forecasting Performance of a Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Model with Partial Current Information" 11th International Symposium on Forecasting, New York, June 1991
  9. "Recession and Recovery in interwar Britain: A Decomposition Analysis", ESRC - Quantitative Economic History Study Group Annual Conference, University of Edinburgh, Sept. 1991
  10. "The Quarterly Liverpool Model with Current Partial Information: An Exercise in Forecasting" 13th International Symposium on Forecasting Pittsburgh, June 1993
  11. "Inflation and Credit Market Shocks: A Signal Extraction Problem" 18th Symposium of Operations Research and Mathematical Economics, Univ. of Koln, Sept. 1993
  12. "Inflation and Unemployment in the UK 1973-1979: A Model based decomposition" International Symposium on Economic Modelling, World Bank, Washington DC, June 1994
  13. "Rational Expectations, Partial Current Information and Macroeconomic Forecasting" 17th International Synposium of Forecasting, Barbados, June 1997
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